Most of what you read about AI doesn't matter — not because it's wrong, but because it's noise. A futurist's job isn't to predict the future; it's to narrow the cone of uncertainty and identify what's common across every plausible future. Two techniques: live 6+ months ahead of the mainstream (so your starting point sits further up the cone), and ask what stays the same across every scenario (Bezos invariants). A two-question filter for any AI news story: does it shift the cone of plausible futures, or just add another dot? Does it change any of the invariants? If neither, it's part of the 95% you can ignore.
How a futurist reads AI news. (Hint: ignore most of it.)
